AI Stock Forecast Showdown: 6 AI Chatbots Predict AMD’s Price for the Week of 24 Feb – 2 Mar 2026

Introduction: Why We Asked 6 AI Chatbots to Forecast AMD

At TheDayAfterAI News, we believe one of the most fascinating applications of generative AI is its ability to synthesise vast amounts of financial data, news, and technical indicators into forward-looking market analysis. But how reliable are these predictions, and do different AI models arrive at the same conclusions when given identical prompts?

To find out, we posed the same question to six of the most widely used AI chatbots available today: ChatGPT (OpenAI), Claude (Anthropic), Gemini (Google), Grok (xAI), Microsoft Copilot, and Perplexity AI. Each was asked to provide a comprehensive analysis of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, NASDAQ: AMD) stock for the five trading days spanning 24 February to 2 March 2026, covering predicted opening and closing prices, probability assessments, expected price ranges, and key risk factors.

The timing could not have been more eventful. On the morning of 24 February 2026, AMD announced a landmark multi-year AI chip supply agreement with Meta Platforms, reportedly valued at up to US$60 billion over five years. The stock surged over 10% in pre-market trading. Simultaneously, broader markets faced headwinds from new US tariff policies, elevated volatility, and the looming NVIDIA Q4 earnings report scheduled for 25 February after market close.

This article presents a side-by-side comparison of what each AI chatbot predicted, highlights where they agreed and diverged, and examines the key factors that shaped their forecasts. We will revisit these predictions after the period concludes to assess accuracy.

The Catalyst: AMD’s Mega-Deal with Meta

All six chatbots identified the AMD–Meta partnership as the dominant driver for the week. The deal involves Meta deploying up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPU capacity across its AI data centre infrastructure, with shipments beginning in the second half of 2026 using AMD’s custom MI450-based Helios rack-scale systems paired with EPYC “Venice” CPUs.

A notable structural feature is Meta’s performance-based warrant to acquire up to 160 million AMD shares at US$0.01 per share, representing approximately 10% potential dilution. Combined with a similar warrant issued to OpenAI under AMD’s earlier deal, total potential warrant dilution approaches 20% of outstanding shares. Several chatbots flagged this as an underappreciated risk that could cap upside even in bullish scenarios.

AMD closed at US$196.60 on Monday 23 February and was trading between US$215 and US$221 in the pre-market session on 24 February, representing a gap-up of approximately 10–12%.

Head-to-Head: The Predictions at a Glance

The table below summarises the core predictions from each chatbot. All prices are in US dollars.

Key Takeaway: Four of six chatbots predicted AMD would finish the week higher than its opening price. The consensus predicted opening price was approximately US$215–$222, with closing predictions for 2 March ranging dramatically from US$194 (Perplexity) to US$245 (Copilot) — a spread of over US$50.

Detailed Analysis: What Each Chatbot Said

ChatGPT (OpenAI)

ChatGPT delivered a measured, day-by-day forecast with a slightly bullish lean. It predicted AMD would open at US$221, closely tracking the pre-market print of US$220.46. Its daily path projected an initial push to US$223 on Tuesday, a cautious pullback to US$218 on Wednesday ahead of NVIDIA earnings, a strong rally to US$222–$232 on Thursday (the NVIDIA reaction day), and a final consolidation to US$226 by Monday 2 March.

ChatGPT assigned a 52% probability of a net gain over the period, reflecting its view that a 12% pre-market gap raises the odds of a partial fade even when the underlying news is bullish. It identified key trigger levels: if AMD opens above US$228 and holds, odds shift toward US$238–$242; if it loses US$214, a deeper pullback to US$205–$210 becomes likely.

Claude (Anthropic)

Claude produced the most detailed narrative analysis, providing both a day-by-day trajectory and explicit confidence calibration at 55%. It predicted an opening price of US$218.50, a closing price of US$226, and a weekly range of US$208–$235. Claude assigned a 62% probability of a net price increase.

A distinctive feature of Claude’s analysis was its emphasis on the NVIDIA earnings binary as potentially more consequential for AMD’s week than the Meta deal itself. Claude argued that a strong NVIDIA quarter would validate the AI infrastructure spending environment that underpins AMD’s deal value, while a weak one could overshadow the catalyst entirely. Claude also flagged the combined 320-million-share warrant dilution (Meta plus OpenAI) as an underappreciated headwind, estimating it represents approximately 22% of market capitalisation at current prices.

Gemini (Google)

Gemini stood out as the most bearish of the chatbots that had access to real-time data, predicting AMD would close at US$206.50 — significantly below its opening price of US$214.80. It assigned a 65% probability of a net price decline and only 35% to an increase.

Gemini’s bearish conviction stemmed from heavy weighting of macroeconomic headwinds. Its analysis devoted substantial attention to the newly announced 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, the VIX trading above 21, a collapsing cryptocurrency market (Bitcoin down 50% from highs), deteriorating market breadth, and end-of-month seasonal weakness. Gemini argued that these systematic forces would overpower AMD’s idiosyncratic catalyst by mid-week, particularly after NVIDIA’s earnings introduced additional binary risk. It was the only chatbot to explicitly model the ISM Manufacturing PMI release on 2 March as a potential final bearish catalyst.

Grok (xAI)

Grok provided a concise, technically oriented analysis with a moderately bullish stance. It predicted an opening price of US$216, a closing price of US$223, and a price range of US$205–$235. Like Claude, Grok assigned a 62% probability of a net price increase.

Grok’s analysis was distinguished by its granular technical detail on moving averages, RSI resets, MACD crossovers, and options flow dynamics. It noted that RSI sat at 38–42 before the news (neutral-to-oversold), giving the stock room to run without immediately hitting overbought territory. Grok was the only chatbot to provide a structured summary table mapping each factor category (technical, catalyst, options, short interest, macro, volume, sector) to its expected impact on AMD.

Microsoft Copilot

Copilot was the most bullish of all six chatbots, predicting AMD would close at US$245 on 2 March — a gain of over 10% from its predicted opening of US$222. It assigned a 68% probability to a net increase and projected an extraordinarily wide price range of US$210–$260.

Copilot’s bullish conviction appeared to stem from a strong weighting of the Meta deal catalyst, institutional buying flows, and gamma squeeze mechanics without as much counterbalancing from macro headwinds. It projected a 45% probability of a move exceeding 10% above the opening price during the period. However, its analysis was notably thinner on macroeconomic detail compared to Gemini and Claude, citing fewer specific data sources.

Perplexity AI

Perplexity was a significant outlier. It predicted AMD would open at approximately US$197 and close at US$194, with a price range of US$180–$215 and only a 47% probability of a net increase. These figures were dramatically lower than every other chatbot’s predictions.

The explanation lies in Perplexity’s data access limitations. Its analysis explicitly acknowledged that it could not see live pre-market quotes, options flow, VIX levels, or the week’s macroeconomic calendar. It was working exclusively from historical end-of-day price data through 23 February and had no awareness of the Meta deal announcement. Its forecast was therefore a pure statistical extrapolation of recent price trends and volatility — essentially modelling a continuation of the prior downtrend. Perplexity commendably flagged these limitations and cautioned that a major overnight gap would substantially change its projections.

Where the Chatbots Agreed

Despite their divergent price targets, the five chatbots with access to the Meta deal news showed remarkable agreement on several qualitative points.

First, the Meta deal as the dominant catalyst. All five recognised the 6-gigawatt AI chip supply agreement as a transformative, re-rating event for AMD, providing multi-year revenue visibility and validating AMD’s position as a credible second source for hyperscale AI compute.

Second, NVIDIA earnings as the week’s pivot point. Every chatbot with real-time awareness identified NVIDIA’s Q4 report on Wednesday 25 February as a binary catalyst that could either amplify or negate AMD’s momentum. Consensus expectations were for approximately US$65.7 billion in revenue and guidance near US$71–75 billion.

Third, elevated volatility and wide ranges. All five projected intraday swings of 5–10%, with weekly ranges spanning US$25–50. This reflects the collision of a massive idiosyncratic catalyst with significant macro uncertainty.

Fourth, warrant dilution as a headwind. Multiple chatbots flagged the 160-million-share Meta warrant (and combined 320-million-share exposure including OpenAI) as a factor likely to temper the initial rally even if sentiment remained positive.

Where the Chatbots Diverged

The Data Access Factor

One of the most striking findings from this experiment is how dramatically data access affected forecast quality. Perplexity, operating without real-time market awareness, produced a forecast that was already invalidated before the market opened — its predicted opening price of US$197 was roughly US$20 below the actual pre-market level.

Conversely, Gemini and Claude, which appeared to draw from the widest array of real-time sources (including pre-market prints, options flow data, VIX levels, economic calendars, and institutional filings), produced the most analytically comprehensive reports. Gemini cited over 60 individual sources across its 21-page analysis, while Claude referenced analyst price targets, specific options strikes, and FOMC minutes from the prior week.

This highlights a crucial insight for anyone using AI chatbots for market analysis: the model’s reasoning capability matters, but access to current, comprehensive data may matter even more.

Methodology

Each chatbot was given the same comprehensive prompt on the morning of 24 February 2026, before the US market opened. The prompt asked for a complete AMD stock analysis covering: predicted opening price (24 February), predicted closing price (2 March), probability of net price increase versus decrease (comparing predicted close to predicted open), estimated price range for the five-day period, and analysis of all major factors including technicals, fundamentals, options flow, macro events, and risk factors.

No follow-up prompts or refinements were used. Each chatbot’s response was captured in its entirety and presented without editorial modification. The analysis quality, depth, and data access varied significantly across platforms, which itself became a key finding of the exercise.

What Happens Next

The five trading days covered by these forecasts span 24 February to 2 March 2026. After the period concludes, TheDayAfterAI News will publish a follow-up article comparing each chatbot’s predictions against the actual price outcomes. We will evaluate accuracy across multiple dimensions: directional call (up or down), opening and closing price precision, range accuracy, and probability calibration.

This is the first instalment in what we plan to make a recurring series, testing AI chatbots against real-world market events to help our readers understand both the capabilities and limitations of AI-driven financial analysis.