AI Chatbot Showdown: CRCL Stock Forecast Comparison
Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) | January 16-23, 2026
Published by TheDayAfterAI News | January 17, 2026
Introduction
In this comprehensive analysis, TheDayAfterAI News presents a unique experiment: we tasked six leading AI chatbots with the same challenge—predict the price movement of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock for the upcoming five trading days (January 16-23, 2026). Each AI was provided with access to real-time market data and asked to deliver their forecasts for opening price, closing price, expected trading range, and directional probability.
Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, experienced significant volatility heading into this forecast period. On January 15, 2026, the stock plummeted approximately 9.67%, closing at $76.60—a dramatic decline that set the stage for our AI comparison. The six chatbots analysed were: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, Copilot, and Perplexity.
Executive Summary
Our analysis reveals a notable consensus among five of the six AI models, with one significant outlier. While ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and Copilot all based their analyses on the January 15 closing price of $76.60, Perplexity appeared to use different reference data (closing price of $84.80), resulting in substantially different predictions. Despite this discrepancy, the majority of models lean cautiously bullish, citing oversold technical conditions as the primary driver for an anticipated recovery.
Forecast Comparison Summary
The following table presents the key predictions from each AI chatbot:
| AI Chatbot | Opening Price | Closing Price | Price Range | Direction Prob. | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | $77.20 | $78.60 | $71 - $82 | 54% Up | Slightly Bullish |
| Claude | $77.50 - $78.50 | $79 - $82 | $73.50 - $84.50 | 55% Up | Slightly Bullish |
| Gemini | $77.15 - $77.30 | $80.45 - $81.20 | $74.50 - $83.75 | 60% Up | Bullish |
| Grok | $75.50 | $80.00 | $72 - $85 | 55% Up | Slightly Bullish |
| Copilot | $78.00 | $80.00 | $72 - $90 | 55% Up | Slightly Bullish |
| Perplexity* | $84.20 - $85.50 | $82 - $86.50 | $80.50 - $88 | 58-62% Down | Bearish |
| Average | $78.46 | $80.70 | $73.92 - $85.54 | 53% Up | Slightly Bullish |
*Perplexity used a different reference price ($84.80 vs $76.60), resulting in significantly different predictions.
Detailed Analysis by Chatbot
1. ChatGPT
ChatGPT delivered a methodical, data-driven analysis with conservative predictions. The model emphasised the importance of the January 16 monthly options expiration and the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday market closure on Monday, January 19.
- Predicted Opening: $77.20
- Predicted Closing: $78.60
- Expected Range: $71 to $82 (base case)
- Key Insight: Highlighted options-implied volatility of 73% suggesting significant price swings expected
2. Claude
Claude provided a balanced analysis focusing on technical oversold conditions while acknowledging fundamental concerns about interest rate sensitivity affecting Circle's revenue model.
- Predicted Opening: $77.50 - $78.50
- Predicted Closing: $79.00 - $82.00
- Expected Range: $73.50 to $84.50
- Key Insight: RSI at 25 indicates extreme oversold conditions historically preceding technical rebounds
3. Gemini
Gemini presented the most bullish outlook among the consensus group, citing a potential "gamma squeeze" scenario driven by options market dynamics and the divergence between CRCL and Bitcoin prices.
- Predicted Opening: $77.15 - $77.30
- Predicted Closing: $80.45 - $81.20
- Expected Range: $74.50 to $83.75
- Key Insight: Max Pain at $85 creates structural incentives for market makers to push prices higher
4. Grok
Grok emphasised the regulatory uncertainty surrounding stablecoin legislation, particularly the delayed Clarity Act, while maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance based on technical factors.
- Predicted Opening: $75.50
- Predicted Closing: $80.00
- Expected Range: $72.00 to $85.00
- Key Insight: RSI at 40 signals oversold conditions with potential for bounce if volume supports
5. Copilot
Copilot provided a concise analysis with the widest predicted trading range, acknowledging significant uncertainty while leaning toward a modest recovery scenario.
- Predicted Opening: $78.00
- Predicted Closing: $80.00
- Expected Range: $72.00 to $90.00 (widest range)
- Key Insight: Senate delay on crypto bill cited as primary near-term headwind
6. Perplexity (The Outlier)
Perplexity stands apart from the other models with significantly different predictions. This appears to stem from using a different reference price ($84.80 instead of $76.60). Despite this discrepancy, Perplexity provided the most comprehensive technical analysis with detailed support/resistance levels.
- Predicted Opening: $84.20 - $85.50
- Predicted Closing: $82.00 - $86.50 (median $83.50)
- Expected Range: $80.50 to $88.00
- Key Insight: 58-62% probability of weekly decline—the only bearish prediction among all models
Consensus Analysis
Areas of Agreement
Despite varying methodologies, the five consensus models (excluding Perplexity) converged on several key points:
- Technical Oversold Conditions: All models identified RSI readings between 25-40, suggesting the stock is technically oversold and due for a bounce.
- Modest Recovery Expected: Predictions clustered around a 3-7% gain for the week, with closing prices ranging from $78.60 to $82.
- Holiday Impact: Multiple models noted the MLK Day closure would compress trading activity into four sessions.
- Options Expiration Dynamics: The January 16 monthly options expiration was cited as a potential catalyst for increased volatility.
Consensus Price Targets (Excluding Perplexity)
| Metric | Consensus Range | Average |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Price | $75.50 - $78.50 | $77.07 |
| Closing Price | $78.60 - $82.00 | $80.05 |
| Expected Weekly Gain | 1.8% - 6.8% | ~3.9% |
| Bullish Probability | 54% - 60% | 55.8% |
Key Risk Factors Identified
The AI models collectively identified several risk factors that could impact the forecast:
Downside Risks
- Regulatory uncertainty surrounding stablecoin legislation (Clarity Act delays)
- Bitcoin correlation risk if crypto markets decline
- Interest rate sensitivity affecting Circle's revenue model (90-95% from reserve interest)
- Continued insider selling pressure post lock-up expiration
Upside Catalysts
- Technical oversold bounce from RSI extremes
- Options market dynamics (Max Pain at $82-$85 creating upward pressure)
- Bitcoin strength near $95,000-$97,000 supporting crypto sentiment
- Short squeeze potential with 7% short interest
Conclusion
This comparative analysis reveals that AI chatbots can provide valuable insights for stock analysis, though with important caveats. The strong consensus among five models (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and Copilot) pointing toward a modest recovery suggests reasonable confidence in a near-term bounce from oversold conditions. However, the Perplexity outlier demonstrates the critical importance of data validation—different input data can lead to dramatically different conclusions.
The consensus forecast suggests CRCL may close the week of January 16-23, 2026 approximately 3-4% higher than its opening, with the stock potentially recovering to the $79-$82 range. This would represent a partial recovery from the January 15 plunge but would still leave the stock well below its recent trading levels and significantly below its all-time high of approximately $299.
About This Analysis
This comparative analysis was conducted by TheDayAfterAI News as part of our ongoing series examining how different AI systems approach financial analysis. Each AI chatbot was given access to real-time market data and asked to provide independent forecasts using their respective analytical frameworks.
AI Models Tested: ChatGPT (OpenAI), Claude (Anthropic), Gemini (Google), Grok (xAI), Copilot (Microsoft), Perplexity
Analysis Date: January 16-17, 2026
Forecast Period: January 16-23, 2026 (5 trading days)
Methodology
Each AI chatbot was given an identical prompt requesting a five-day stock price forecast. The models used their own web-search and data-retrieval capabilities; no proprietary data was provided. Responses were collected without modification. Variations in depth, format, and analytical approach reflect each platform's native capabilities.
