Executive Summary
In our ongoing AI Stock Prediction Series, TheDayAfterAI News tasked six of the most widely used AI chatbots with a challenging assignment: predict the 5-day price trajectory of Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) from February 25 to March 3, 2026. Each chatbot was provided with the same prompt and asked to deliver a predicted opening price, closing price, estimated price range, and directional probability. The results reveal fascinating divergences in how different AI models interpret identical market conditions.
The timing of this analysis is particularly significant. Circle reported blockbuster Q4 2025 earnings before the market opened on February 25, 2026, sending the stock surging approximately 18–19% in pre-market trading from its previous close of $61.37. The results included revenue of $770 million (+77% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $167 million (+412% YoY), and USDC circulation reaching $75.3 billion (+72% YoY). This powerful earnings catalyst, combined with elevated short interest of 22.7 million shares and a deeply oversold technical setup, created an extraordinary test case for AI-powered stock analysis.
The Six Chatbots Tested
We selected six of the most popular and capable AI chatbots available to consumers and professionals today: Gemini (Google), Claude (Anthropic), ChatGPT (OpenAI), Perplexity (Perplexity AI), Grok (xAI), and Copilot (Microsoft). Each model was given the same standardised prompt requesting a comprehensive analysis covering technical indicators, market sentiment, fundamental catalysts, macroeconomic factors, and a specific 5-day price prediction with directional probabilities.
Head-to-Head Prediction Comparison
The table below presents the core prediction from each chatbot, ranked from most bullish to most bearish based on their directional probability assessment.
| AI Chatbot | Pred. Open (Feb 25) | Pred. Close (Mar 3) | Price Change | 5-Day Range | Direction (Prob.) | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | $71.85 | $78.40 | +$6.55 (+9.1%) | $66.50 – $84.20 | ▲ Up (71.5%) | Most Bullish |
| Copilot | $71.00 | $74.00 | +$3.00 (+4.2%) | $66.00 – $82.00 | ▲ Up (65%) | Bullish |
| Grok | $72.50 | $76.00 | +$3.50 (+4.8%) | $68.00 – $82.00 | ▲ Up (62%) | Bullish |
| Claude | $71.50 | $72.50 | +$1.00 (+1.4%) | $66.00 – $77.00 | ▲ Up (57%) | Cautiously Bullish |
| ChatGPT | $73.20 | $74.60 | +$1.40 (+1.9%) | $68.00 – $82.00 | ▲ Up (56%) | Cautiously Bullish |
| Perplexity | $61.01 | $59.30 | –$1.71 (–2.8%) | $53.03 – $66.27 | ▼ Down (60%) | Bearish |
Key Takeaway: Five out of six chatbots (83%) predict CRCL will close higher on March 3 than it opens on February 25. Perplexity is the only chatbot predicting a net price decline.
Where the Chatbots Agree
Despite their different architectures and training data, all six chatbots identified several common themes:
1. The Earnings Beat Is the Dominant Catalyst
Every chatbot recognised Circle’s Q4 2025 results as the primary driver of the week’s price action. Revenue of $770 million, EPS of $0.43 (far exceeding consensus of $0.16–$0.35), and USDC circulation of $75.3 billion were universally cited as transformative metrics that fundamentally altered the stock’s near-term trajectory.
2. Short Squeeze Potential Is Elevated
All six models flagged the 22.7 million shares of short interest (approximately 11–18% of float) as a significant amplifier of upside momentum. The 18% pre-market gap placed nearly all short positions underwater, creating forced covering pressure that multiple chatbots estimated would take 2–3 trading days to unwind.
3. Extreme Volatility Is Expected
Every model projected wide intraday ranges throughout the week. The average predicted 5-day range spans roughly $15–$18 in price, reflecting the confluence of earnings-driven momentum, options expiration mechanics on February 27, and macroeconomic data releases.
4. Macro Events Create Two-Sided Risk
Five of six chatbots explicitly identified the PPI data release (February 27) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (March 2) as key risk events capable of swinging broad market sentiment. Several also flagged NVIDIA’s earnings report after the close on February 25 as a significant external catalyst that could spill over into CRCL’s price action.
Where the Chatbots Diverge
The Perplexity Outlier
The most striking divergence is Perplexity’s bearish forecast, predicting a decline from $61.01 to $59.30 with a 60% probability of a net loss. Perplexity’s model appears to have relied heavily on historical mean-reversion statistics from the preceding months without fully incorporating the pre-market earnings gap. Its predicted opening of $61.01 — essentially flat with the prior close — suggests the model did not account for the 18–19% pre-market surge that was already underway at the time of analysis. This represents a significant methodological limitation, as the other five chatbots all anchored their predictions to pre-market pricing in the $71–$73 range.
Bullish Conviction Spectrum
Among the five bullish chatbots, there is a notable spread in conviction. Gemini stands as the most aggressive bull, projecting a closing price of $78.40 with a 71.5% probability of increase. Its analysis incorporated deep options microstructure analysis, gamma squeeze mechanics, and delta-hedging requirements — the most granular derivatives analysis of any model. On the other end, ChatGPT and Claude offered more tempered forecasts of $74.60 and $72.50 respectively, both citing the 50-day moving average (~$72–$75) as a meaningful resistance zone that would cap upside.
Analytical Depth and Methodology
The chatbots varied considerably in the depth and focus of their analyses. Gemini produced the longest and most detailed report, spanning options flow analysis, ETF rebalancing mechanics (specifically the YieldMax CRCO ETF), and a granular day-by-day forecast. Claude offered the most balanced assessment, weighing bullish catalysts against the crypto winter backdrop and geopolitical risks with equal rigour. Grok delivered a clean, data-dense summary with strong emphasis on fundamental metrics. ChatGPT provided a scenario-weighted approach with well-defined intraday ranges. Copilot stood out for including practical trading considerations and suggested stop-loss levels. Perplexity relied most heavily on statistical modelling of historical return distributions but missed the critical real-time earnings catalyst.
Day-by-Day Trajectory Comparison
Excluding Perplexity (whose baseline assumptions differ materially), the five bullish chatbots present the following day-by-day expectations:
| Trading Day | Gemini | Claude | ChatGPT | Grok | Copilot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Feb 25 | $71.85 → ~$75 | $71.50 → $70–$74 | $73.20 → $75.40 | $72.50 → gap | $71.00 → $72.50 |
| Thu Feb 26 | $68–$69 dip | $69–$76 | $74.20 | Momentum | $74.00 |
| Fri Feb 27 | Volatile OPEX | $67–$77 | $73.30 | OPEX swings | $73.00 |
| Mon Mar 2 | Steady drift up | $67–$76 | $74.10 | ISM catalyst | $75.00 |
| Tue Mar 3 | $78.40 | $68–$76 | $74.60 | $76.00 | $74.00 |
A common pattern emerges: an initial surge on Wednesday (February 25) driven by earnings momentum and short covering, followed by consolidation or a modest pullback on Thursday and Friday as profit-taking and options expiration dynamics play out, then a potential re-acceleration into early the following week as institutional buyers step in on updated analyst price targets.
Key Risk Factors Identified Across Models
The chatbots collectively identified several risks that could derail the bullish thesis:
- The crypto market downturn (Bitcoin at $63,000–$65,000, down ~50% from peak) continues to weigh on sentiment for crypto-adjacent equities
- The Supreme Court tariff ruling and subsequent Section 122 retaliation tariffs inject uncertainty into the broader macro environment
- Weekly options expiration on February 27 creates potential for extreme pinning or gamma-driven volatility
- The 50-day moving average at approximately $72–$75 represents a critical technical resistance zone that must be cleared for the bullish thesis to play out
Methodology
Each chatbot was provided with an identical prompt requesting a comprehensive 5-day stock price forecast for CRCL covering the period February 25 to March 3, 2026. The prompt specified that the analysis should include technical analysis, market sentiment, fundamental catalysts, macroeconomic factors, and specific numerical predictions for opening price, closing price, price range, and directional probability. No additional context or leading information was provided beyond the prompt itself. The chatbots were free to access their respective real-time data sources, training knowledge, and analytical frameworks.
Conclusion: The AI Consensus View
The overwhelming consensus from our six-chatbot analysis is that CRCL is likely to close higher on March 3 than it opens on February 25. The earnings catalyst has fundamentally altered the near-term outlook, and five of six models agree that the combination of forced short covering, institutional re-rating, and USDC growth momentum should support elevated prices through the week. However, the wide predicted ranges ($11–$18 spreads) and the divergence in conviction levels (56% to 71.5% bullish probability) underscore that this remains a high-volatility, high-uncertainty environment.
Perplexity’s bearish outlier serves as a valuable reminder that purely statistical models can miss critical real-time catalysts. The lesson for investors: AI chatbots are powerful analytical tools, but they are not crystal balls. Their greatest value lies not in any single prediction, but in the collective synthesis of perspectives they offer.
