Executive Summary
TheDayAfterAI News asked five leading AI chatbots — Claude (Anthropic), ChatGPT (OpenAI), Grok (xAI), Perplexity, and Microsoft Copilot — to independently analyse IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) and forecast its stock price over five trading days (February 26 – March 4, 2026) following a blockbuster Q4 2025 earnings report. A sixth chatbot, Google Gemini, was unable to complete its analysis within the pre-market window due to repeated failures in its Deep Research mode.
The results reveal a striking split: three chatbots (Claude, Grok, ChatGPT) are bullish, projecting a net gain of 4.6–10.4% by March 4, while two (Perplexity, Copilot) lean bearish, forecasting a pullback of 1.5–6.7%. The consensus opening price clusters around $38–$39, but end-of-period targets diverge by as much as $9 — from Perplexity’s $33 to Claude’s $42.
The Experiment
On the morning of February 26, 2026, with IonQ’s stock surging over 16% in pre-market trading following a Q4 earnings beat of historic proportions, we posed the same question to six of the most widely used AI chatbots: “What will IONQ’s stock price do over the next five trading days?”
Each chatbot was given identical instructions to analyse IONQ using all available data — technical indicators, fundamental catalysts, macroeconomic conditions, options positioning, short interest, and sentiment — and produce a structured forecast including predicted opening and closing prices, intraday ranges, daily estimates, scenario analysis, and probability assessments.
Five chatbots delivered comprehensive reports. Google Gemini’s Deep Research mode failed repeatedly within the one-hour pre-market window, and its analysis could not be included. The five completed analyses are presented below, compared side by side, and synthesised into a consensus view.
Why IONQ, Why Now?
IonQ reported Q4 2025 revenue of $61.9 million, crushing the $40.4 million consensus estimate by 53% and growing 429% year-over-year. Full-year 2025 revenue reached $130 million, making IonQ the first publicly traded quantum computing company to exceed $100 million in annual revenue.
Management guided FY2026 revenue to $225–$245 million, roughly 81% growth and well above the $194 million Street consensus.
The stock had already fallen approximately 60% from its October 2025 all-time high, with short interest elevated at 22.77% of the float (79.28 million shares, requiring 4.3 days to cover). The combination of a massive earnings beat landing on a deeply oversold, heavily shorted stock created one of the most interesting short-term trading setups of 2026 — and a perfect test case for AI-powered market analysis.
Head-to-Head: The Five Forecasts
| Chatbot | Pred. Open (Feb 26) | Pred. Close (Mar 4) | 5-Day Range | Net Change | Prob. Up | Prob. Down |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | $39.00 | $42.00 | $36.50–$45.00 | +7.7% | 62% | 38% |
| Grok | $38.50 | $40.80 | $36.00–$43.50 | +6.0% | 60% | 40% |
| ChatGPT | $39.10 | $40.90 | $36.50–$43.50 | +4.6% | 54% | 46% |
| Perplexity | $33.50 | $33.00 | $28.00–$38.00 | –1.5% | 40% | 50% |
| Copilot | $37.50 | $35.00 | $32.00–$40.00 | –6.7% | 40% | 60% |
Key Takeaway: Three out of five chatbots (60%) predict IONQ will close higher on March 4 than it opens on February 26. Claude is the most bullish with a $42 target; Perplexity is the most bearish at $33. Grok provided base-case close only; daily breakdown was limited.
Key Observations
The Bullish Camp: Claude, Grok, and ChatGPT
Three chatbots project that IONQ will close higher on March 4 than it opens on February 26, with net gains ranging from +4.6% (ChatGPT) to +7.7% (Claude). These models weight the short-squeeze mechanics most heavily: with 79 million shares short and a 4.3-day cover ratio, forced buying cannot be completed in a single session, creating multi-day upward pressure. Claude assigns 62% probability to a positive outcome, the most bullish conviction of any model.
Claude’s analysis is the most detailed on short-squeeze dynamics, explicitly modelling the 4.3-day cover period as a source of “mechanical buying flow independent of fundamental views.” Grok and ChatGPT reach similar conclusions through different emphases: Grok focuses on the earnings catalyst as a sentiment reset, while ChatGPT provides the most granular day-by-day probability estimates, noting that the first two days carry more downside risk (gap-fade behaviour) before momentum stabilises.
The Bearish Camp: Perplexity and Copilot
Perplexity and Copilot both project the stock will close lower than it opens, forecasting declines of 1.5% and 6.7% respectively. These models place greater weight on the tendency for post-earnings gaps to partially retrace, options-expiry mechanics (weekly expiry on February 27), and the stock’s entrenched intermediate-term downtrend.
Perplexity is the most cautious of all five, projecting a central estimate of just $33 for the March 4 close — essentially flat with the pre-earnings close and implying that the entire 16% gap-up would be erased. This appears to reflect an analytical framework that did not fully incorporate the post-earnings pre-market repricing into its opening price estimate, using $33.50 rather than the $38–$39 range used by the other four. Copilot anchored its opening at $37.50 and projects a gradual daily decline as profit-taking dominates.
Where They Agree
Despite divergent conclusions, all five chatbots agree on several structural points:
- All identify the 22–25% short interest as the dominant positioning factor
- All flag the February 27 weekly options expiry as a source of near-term volatility
- All recognise that the PPI data release (February 27) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (March 2) are the key macro risks
- All note that the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference on March 4 is the final catalyst of the window
- All acknowledge that IONQ’s extreme beta (1.82–2.64) means any broad market selloff would be amplified
Day-by-Day Predicted Closing Prices
| Date | Claude | Grok | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Copilot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26 (Thu) | $41.00 | $40.80* | $38.80 | ~$34 | $38.00 |
| Feb 27 (Fri) | $41.00 | — | $38.00 | ~$33 | $36.50 |
| Mar 2 (Mon) | $40.50 | — | $39.20 | ~$33 | $36.00 |
| Mar 3 (Tue) | $41.50 | — | $40.10 | ~$33 | $35.00 |
| Mar 4 (Wed) | $42.00 | $40.80 | $40.90 | ~$33 | $35.00 |
* Grok provided only base-case period-end close ($40.80) rather than full daily estimates. Perplexity estimates are approximate from its scenario-range descriptions.
The day-by-day trajectories reveal fundamentally different models of post-earnings price behaviour. Claude and ChatGPT see a stock that dips briefly on the first day or two (gap-fade and expiry effects) and then rallies steadily as short covering sustains momentum into the conference. Copilot sees a stock that peaks on Day 1 and then bleeds lower each subsequent day. Perplexity projects essentially flat post-earnings action around the pre-earnings close, the most unconventional reading.
Scenario Analysis Comparison
Three of the five chatbots provided explicit multi-scenario frameworks. The table below compares their bull, base, and bear cases.
| Scenario | Prob. | Claude | Grok | Perplexity | ChatGPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | 25–30% | $45–$48 | $42–$43.50 | $36–$38 | — |
| Base Case | 50–60% | $42–$43 | $40.80 | $32–$34 | $40.90 |
| Bear Case | 15–35% | $35–$38 | $37.20 | $28–$31 | — |
Note: ChatGPT provided daily probabilities rather than explicit scenario-based targets. Copilot provided a single-path forecast without scenario branching.
The scenario ranges reveal how differently the models calibrate risk. Claude’s bull case ($45–$48) implies the stock could reach the 50-day/200-day moving average cluster at ~$47, a full short-squeeze scenario. Perplexity’s bull case ($36–$38) is actually lower than Claude’s base case, illustrating how wide the analytical gap is between the most and least bullish models.
Analytical Strengths and Blind Spots
Claude (Anthropic)
Provided the most granular day-by-day analysis with specific catalyst mapping for each session. Strongest on short-squeeze mechanics, explicitly modelling the 4.3-day cover period. Weakest on downside scenario detail — relatively optimistic bear case ($35–$38) may underestimate gap-fill risk.
Grok (xAI)
Delivered the most balanced integration of technical, fundamental, sector, and macro factors. Strong on sector dynamics (quantum computing ecosystem, peer read-across) and strategic catalysts (SkyWater acquisition, Romania QKD deployment). Day-by-day granularity was limited compared to peers.
ChatGPT (OpenAI)
Uniquely provided individual-day directional probabilities, noting that the first two days carry more downside risk before momentum stabilises. Strong on options mechanics and the February 27 expiry impact. The most practical for active traders with its daily bias estimates and “invalidation” levels ($37 downside, $41.50 upside).
Perplexity
The most conservative forecast and the most sceptical of post-earnings sustainability. Perplexity appears to have anchored its opening price near the February 25 close ($33.50–$34.00) rather than the pre-market repriced level of $38–$39, which significantly affects all downstream estimates. Its analysis of options flow and institutional positioning was thorough, but the base case of essentially no net gain from the earnings gap-up is an outlier.
Microsoft Copilot
Provided the clearest actionable trading framework: when to trim, when to enter, and how to manage short exposure. Strongest on options-expiry mechanics and post-expiry stabilisation timing. The single-path daily decline trajectory, however, lacks the scenario branching that makes the other analyses more robust.
Google Gemini (DNF)
Gemini’s Deep Research mode failed to complete its analysis within the pre-market window despite multiple attempts. This is a recurring limitation we have observed with Gemini’s research capabilities under time pressure. No analysis was produced.
Key Watchpoints for the Week
All five chatbots converged on a common set of signals to monitor:
- Day 1 volume: if February 26 volume exceeds 30 million shares in the first hour, it signals aggressive short covering and supports the bullish thesis
- The $37–$38 level: if the stock fails to hold this zone on Day 1, the gap-fill scenario toward $35 or below becomes the base case
- PPI data on February 27: a hotter-than-expected print would pressure all speculative growth stocks, with IONQ’s high beta amplifying the damage
- Morgan Stanley TMT Conference on March 4: management’s commentary becomes the swing factor for how the week ends
- VIX above 20: a spike in broad market volatility would disproportionately hit a name like IONQ
Methodology
Each chatbot was prompted on the morning of February 26, 2026, between approximately 7:00–8:00 AM ET, with instructions to produce a comprehensive 5-day stock price forecast for IONQ using all available data. The prompt specified that each analysis should cover price action and volume, market sentiment and positioning, fundamental catalysts, sector dynamics, macroeconomic factors, monetary policy, global market influences, microstructure, and risk factors.
The chatbots used were: Claude (Anthropic, via claude.ai with web search), ChatGPT (OpenAI, via chatgpt.com), Grok (xAI, via grok.com with DeepSearch), Perplexity (via perplexity.ai with Pro Search), and Microsoft Copilot (via copilot.microsoft.com with Think Deeper). Google Gemini was attempted via gemini.google.com with Deep Research but failed to complete within the time window.
No editorial modifications were made to the chatbots’ analyses. The comparison and synthesis above are the work of TheDayAfterAI’s research team.
Conclusion: The AI Consensus View
The majority view from our five-chatbot analysis is that IONQ is likely to close higher on March 4 than it opens on February 26, with three of five models projecting gains of 4.6–7.7%. The earnings catalyst — Q4 revenue crushing estimates by 53%, 429% YoY growth, and FY2026 guidance well above Street consensus — has fundamentally altered the near-term outlook. The 22.77% short interest creates a mechanical tailwind that multiple models estimate will take the full five-day window to unwind.
However, the 3–2 split and the wide range of end-of-period targets ($33–$42) underscore that this remains a high-conviction, high-uncertainty environment. The bearish minority raises legitimate concerns about gap-fade tendencies, options-expiry mechanics, and the stock’s entrenched intermediate-term downtrend.
As with all entries in our AI Stock Prediction Series: AI chatbots are powerful analytical tools, but they are not crystal balls. Their greatest value lies in the collective synthesis of perspectives they offer — and in this case, that synthesis points to cautious optimism with significant volatility ahead.
