Elon Musk’s 10 Billion Robot Forecast Drives 2025 Debate as Tesla Scales Up AI Robotics

Image Credit: Arseny Togulev | Splash

Elon Musk’s predictions about a world populated by humanoid robots are back in the spotlight as advances in artificial intelligence and robotics accelerate globally. More than half a year since Musk’s remarks at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh, discussion continues about what these technological shifts could mean for society, industry, and everyday life.

[Read More: Tesla Unveils Cybercab & Robovan: Musk's Bold Bet on Autonomous Robotaxis by 2026]

Musk’s 2040 Projection: Billions of Humanoid Robots

During his keynote at the FII conference in October 2024, Musk projected that “by 2040, there’ll probably be more robots than there are people”. He further specified an estimate of at least 10 billion humanoid robots worldwide by that time, each priced between US$20,000 and US$25,000. The global human population currently stands at just over 8 billion, making Musk’s projection notably ambitious and a focal point for debate among technology observers.

Musk suggested that falling production costs, breakthroughs in AI, and scaling manufacturing capacity could make such mass adoption of robots feasible within the next 15 years. Industry analysts note that while the price range Musk mentioned could make robots accessible to some households and businesses, the overall impact would depend on future advances in software, hardware, and the broader AI ecosystem.

[Read More: Can AI Robots Be Classified as Living Things?]

Tesla’s Optimus Robot: Production and Capabilities

In 2025, Tesla is progressing towards its target of producing 10,000 units of its Optimus humanoid robot by year’s end. Optimus is designed as a general-purpose robotic assistant, capable of performing repetitive, dangerous, or undesirable tasks for humans. The robot leverages Tesla’s developments in electric vehicle engineering—using similar batteries, actuators, and AI software.

Recent public demonstrations have shown Optimus walking, lifting objects, climbing stairs, and performing basic manipulations. Tesla reports ongoing improvements in the robot’s dexterity, balance, and decision-making through enhanced machine learning algorithms. While full autonomy for complex household or industrial roles remains under development, experts suggest the Optimus project is among the most advanced in the emerging field of commercial robotics.

[Read More: AI-Powered Robotics Take Center Stage at Automate 2025 in Detroit]

Robotic Surgery: Medtronic’s Hugo System

Robotics is also making headlines in the healthcare sector. In April 2025, Medtronic published results from its Expand URO clinical trial in the United States, which evaluated the Hugo robotic-assisted surgery system. The system achieved a 98.5% success rate in urologic procedures among 137 patients, surpassing the trial’s predefined performance goal of 85%. Surgeons and healthcare professionals cite the precision, stability, and reduced recovery times made possible by such systems as key benefits.

Referencing advancements like Hugo, Musk has publicly predicted that AI-powered robots will surpass the capabilities of good human surgeons within a few years, and potentially outperform even the best human surgeons within five years. This prediction is seen as both a challenge and an opportunity for the medical field.

[Read More: Jensen Huang Receives HKUST Honour, Forecasts Future of AI and Robotics in Greater Bay Area]

AI Technology Transfer: From Cars to Robots

Musk has stated that much of the core technology developed for Tesla’s vehicles—including batteries, power electronics, drive systems, and AI computing—has direct application to humanoid robots. At recent public events, Musk explained that the techniques for software, sensor fusion, and real-time control in autonomous vehicles are being adapted for use in bipedal robots.

According to Tesla, integrating these technologies aims to accelerate robot development, increase cost-efficiency, and improve reliability. Industry experts note that the transfer of automotive AI into robotics could help standardize platforms and speed up the learning curve for robot deployment in diverse environments.

[Read More: Meet Taiwan’s First AI Robot Dogs: Oliver and Dustin]

Societal and Ethical Considerations

The rapid development of robotics and AI has sparked broad debate over its potential impact on employment, privacy, and social interaction. Some experts welcome the technology as a means of addressing labour shortages, performing hazardous work, and improving quality of life. However, critics raise concerns about job displacement, security vulnerabilities, and the ethical use of autonomous systems.

Musk has repeatedly called for regulatory oversight and proactive risk management in AI development. Policymakers in several countries are now evaluating frameworks to govern the deployment and integration of advanced robots in daily life.

[Read More: AI Companion Robots Gain Popularity Amid Rising Loneliness Epidemic]

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Source: Yahoo! News, US News, Times of India, Electrek, Fox Business, Medtronic

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