AI Chatbot Comparison: CRCL Stock Forecast for Jan 16–23, 2026
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. The predictions and analyses presented herein were generated by AI systems and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices are inherently unpredictable, and all investments carry risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should consult qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TheDayAfterAI News and its contributors do not accept liability for any losses arising from reliance on this content.
In this comprehensive analysis, TheDayAfterAI News presents a unique experiment: we tasked six leading AI chatbots with the same challenge — predict the price movement of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock for the upcoming five trading days (January 16-23, 2026). Each AI was provided with access to real-time market data and asked to deliver their forecasts for opening price, closing price, expected trading range, and directional probability.
Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, experienced significant volatility heading into this forecast period. On January 15, 2026, the stock plummeted approximately 9.67%, closing at $76.60 — a dramatic decline that set the stage for our AI comparison. The six chatbots analysed were: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, Copilot, and Perplexity.
Executive Summary
Our analysis reveals a notable consensus among five of the six AI models, with one significant outlier. While ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and Copilot all based their analyses on the January 15 closing price of $76.60, Perplexity appeared to use different reference data (closing price of $84.80), resulting in substantially different predictions. Despite this discrepancy, the majority of models lean cautiously bullish, citing oversold technical conditions as the primary driver for an anticipated recovery.
Forecast Comparison Summary
The following table presents the key predictions from each AI chatbot:
Detailed Analysis by Chatbot
1. ChatGPT
ChatGPT delivered a methodical, data-driven analysis with conservative predictions. The model emphasised the importance of the January 16 monthly options expiration and the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday market closure on Monday, January 19.
Predicted Opening: $77.20
Predicted Closing: $78.60
Expected Range: $71 to $82 (base case)
Key Insight: Highlighted options-implied volatility of 73% suggesting significant price swings expected
2. Claude
Claude provided a balanced analysis focusing on technical oversold conditions while acknowledging fundamental concerns about interest rate sensitivity affecting Circle's revenue model.
Predicted Opening: $77.50 - $78.50
Predicted Closing: $79.00 - $82.00
Expected Range: $73.50 to $84.50
Key Insight: RSI at 25 indicates extreme oversold conditions historically preceding technical rebounds
3. Gemini
Gemini presented the most bullish outlook among the consensus group, citing a potential "gamma squeeze" scenario driven by options market dynamics and the divergence between CRCL and Bitcoin prices.
Predicted Opening: $77.15 - $77.30
Predicted Closing: $80.45 - $81.20
Expected Range: $74.50 to $83.75
Key Insight: Max Pain at $85 creates structural incentives for market makers to push prices higher
4. Grok
Grok emphasised the regulatory uncertainty surrounding stablecoin legislation, particularly the delayed Clarity Act, while maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance based on technical factors.
Predicted Opening: $75.50
Predicted Closing: $80.00
Expected Range: $72.00 to $85.00
Key Insight: RSI at 40 signals oversold conditions with potential for bounce if volume supports
5. Copilot
Copilot provided a concise analysis with the widest predicted trading range, acknowledging significant uncertainty while leaning toward a modest recovery scenario.
Predicted Opening: $78.00
Predicted Closing: $80.00
Expected Range: $72.00 to $90.00 (widest range)
Key Insight: Senate delay on crypto bill cited as primary near-term headwind
6. Perplexity (The Outlier)
Perplexity stands apart from the other models with significantly different predictions. This appears to stem from using a different reference price ($84.80 instead of $76.60). Despite this discrepancy, Perplexity provided the most comprehensive technical analysis with detailed support/resistance levels.
Predicted Opening: $84.20 - $85.50
Predicted Closing: $82.00 - $86.50 (median $83.50)
Expected Range: $80.50 to $88.00
Key Insight: 58-62% probability of weekly decline—the only bearish prediction among all models
Areas of Agreement
Despite varying methodologies, the five consensus models (excluding Perplexity) converged on several key points:
Technical Oversold Conditions: All models identified RSI readings between 25-40, suggesting the stock is technically oversold and due for a bounce.
Modest Recovery Expected: Predictions clustered around a 3-7% gain for the week, with closing prices ranging from $78.60 to $82.
Holiday Impact: Multiple models noted the MLK Day closure would compress trading activity into four sessions.
Options Expiration Dynamics: The January 16 monthly options expiration was cited as a potential catalyst for increased volatility.
Key Risk Factors Identified
The AI models collectively identified several risk factors that could impact the forecast:
Downside Risks
Regulatory uncertainty surrounding stablecoin legislation (Clarity Act delays)
Bitcoin correlation risk if crypto markets decline
Interest rate sensitivity affecting Circle's revenue model (90-95% from reserve interest)
Continued insider selling pressure post lock-up expiration
Upside Catalysts
Technical oversold bounce from RSI extremes
Options market dynamics (Max Pain at $82-$85 creating upward pressure)
Bitcoin strength near $95,000-$97,000 supporting crypto sentiment
Short squeeze potential with 7% short interest
Methodology Comparison
Each AI demonstrated distinct analytical approaches:
ChatGPT: Options-implied volatility, economic calendar events, support/resistance levels
Claude: Fundamental analysis (revenue model risk), institutional sentiment, technical oversold signals
Gemini: Market microstructure, gamma squeeze mechanics, Bitcoin correlation arbitrage
Grok: Regulatory catalysts, put/call ratios, crypto sector flows
Copilot: Concise technical setup, macro headwinds, volatility regime
Perplexity: Comprehensive technical indicators, moving average structure, analyst consensus
Conclusion
This comparative analysis reveals that AI chatbots can provide valuable insights for stock analysis, though with important caveats. The strong consensus among five models (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, and Copilot) pointing toward a modest recovery suggests reasonable confidence in a near-term bounce from oversold conditions. However, the Perplexity outlier demonstrates the critical importance of data validation—different input data can lead to dramatically different conclusions.
The consensus forecast suggests CRCL may close the week of January 16-23, 2026 approximately 3-4% higher than its opening, with the stock potentially recovering to the $79-$82 range. This would represent a partial recovery from the January 15 plunge but would still leave the stock well below its recent trading levels and significantly below its all-time high of approximately $299.
For the complete breakdown — including day-by-day price targets, specific option strikes to watch, and detailed institutional flow analysis — please refer to the Full Report.
License This Article
TheDayAfterAI News
We are a leading AI-focused digital news platform, combining AI-generated reporting with human editorial oversight. By aggregating and synthesizing the latest developments in AI — spanning innovation, technology, ethics, policy and business — we deliver timely, accurate and thought-provoking content.