Applied Materials (AMAT) Stock Forecast: Comparing Six AI Chatbot Price Predictions

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. The predictions and analyses presented herein were generated by AI systems and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices are inherently unpredictable, and all investments carry risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should consult qualified financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TheDayAfterAI News and its contributors do not accept liability for any losses arising from reliance on this content.

At TheDayAfterAI News, we are pioneering a unique approach to financial analysis: harnessing the collective intelligence of today’s leading AI chatbots to generate short-term stock price forecasts. In this instalment of our ongoing series, we tasked six of the most widely used AI chatbots — ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, Perplexity, and Copilot — with the same challenge: predict the price trajectory of Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) over the five trading sessions from Friday, February 13 to Friday, February 20, 2026.

Each chatbot was given identical prompts and access to the same publicly available market data. They were asked to provide a predicted opening price (Feb 13), a predicted closing price (Feb 20), a probability assessment of whether the stock would rise or fall over the period, an estimated price range, and a session-by-session forecast path. The results reveal both a striking degree of consensus and notable divergences in methodology and confidence levels.

Why AMAT, and Why This Week?

Applied Materials is a bellwether of the semiconductor equipment industry and a direct beneficiary of the global AI infrastructure buildout. The forecast window was chosen deliberately because it presented an unusually dense confluence of market-moving events:

• Earnings Catalyst: AMAT reported a blowout Q1 FY2026 after the close on February 12, beating consensus on both EPS ($2.38 vs. $2.19–$2.21 expected) and revenue ($7.01B vs. $6.88B expected), while guiding Q2 revenue to $7.65B — a staggering 9% above Street estimates.

• Macro Data: January CPI released on the morning of February 13 came in at 2.4% YoY, below the 2.5% consensus, providing a disinflationary tailwind for growth stocks.

• Regulatory Resolution: AMAT settled its $252.5M export-control penalties with the Bureau of Industry and Security on February 11, removing a persistent regulatory overhang.

• Structural Events: The week included a US market holiday (Presidents’ Day, Feb 16), monthly options expiration (Feb 20), VIX futures expiry (Feb 18), FOMC minutes (Feb 18), and AMAT’s ex-dividend date (Feb 19).

This “perfect storm” of catalysts made AMAT an ideal test case for evaluating how different AI models weigh fundamental, technical, macro, and structural factors in short-term forecasting.

Headline Predictions at a Glance

The table below summarises the core predictions from each chatbot. All six were bullish, but the degree of conviction and the specific price targets varied meaningfully.

Note: Consensus figures are simple averages across all six chatbots. Copilot’s opening price estimate appears to have been based on the pre-earnings closing price rather than the post-earnings pre-market level, which accounts for its significant deviation from the other five models.

Key Observations

1. Universal Bullish Consensus

All six chatbots predicted AMAT would finish the week higher than its opening price on February 13. The probability assessments ranged from a cautious 58% (Claude) to an assertive 85% (Gemini). This unanimity reflects the overwhelming weight of the earnings catalyst: a beat-and-raise quarter driven by AI-related semiconductor demand is precisely the kind of fundamental event that all models, regardless of methodology, interpret as directionally positive.

2. The Opening Price Divergence

Five of the six chatbots converged on an opening price in the $363–$369 range, consistent with pre-market trading levels observed on the morning of February 13 after the post-earnings after-hours surge. The outlier was Copilot at $335, which appears to have anchored its opening estimate closer to the February 12 closing price of $328.39 rather than accounting for the overnight repricing. This is a notable methodological gap — the model seemingly did not fully incorporate the after-hours and pre-market price action into its starting reference point.

3. Closing Price Spread: Cautious vs. Euphoric

The predicted closing prices on February 20 ranged from $360 (Copilot) to $384.25 (Gemini), a spread of $24.25. Excluding Copilot’s lower baseline, the remaining five models clustered between $373 and $384, suggesting a consensus end-of-week target in the mid-$370s to low-$380s. Claude was the most conservative among the five pre-market-aware models, projecting just a +1.4% gain, explicitly citing AMAT’s historical pattern of post-earnings sell-offs and OPEX headwinds. Gemini was the most bullish, projecting +4.3% with 85% confidence, heavily weighting the gamma squeeze thesis and dealer hedging dynamics.

4. Volatility Expectations

The estimated price ranges reveal differing assumptions about volatility. Perplexity projected the widest range ($335–$395, a $60 spread), reflecting its emphasis on the elevated VIX environment and the possibility of sharp intraday reversals. Gemini projected the narrowest range ($362–$392, a $30 spread), consistent with its high-conviction bullish thesis that the gamma squeeze dynamics would limit downside. ChatGPT’s range ($345–$405) was the most aggressive on the upside, being the only model to contemplate prices above $400 during the week.

5. Where the Models Agreed Most

Despite their differences, all six models converged on several key themes. The earnings beat and forward guidance were universally identified as the primary bullish catalyst. All models recognised the January CPI print as a supportive macro tailwind. The prior 52-week high of $344.60 was consistently identified as the critical support level that must hold for the bullish thesis to remain intact. And all models flagged FOMC minutes on February 18 and monthly options expiration on February 20 as the week’s most significant risk events.

How Each Chatbot Approached the Forecast

While all six chatbots drew from similar data sources, their analytical frameworks and emphasis areas differed in revealing ways:

Critical Levels and Events to Watch

Synthesising across all six analyses, the following levels and events emerged as consensus focal points for the week:

Key Price Levels

• Critical Support — $344–$345: The prior 52-week/all-time high. All models agree that a close below this level would invalidate the breakout thesis.

• Near-Term Support — $358–$365: The post-earnings gap zone. Holding this range on any pullback would confirm buyer conviction.

• Upside Resistance — $380–$385: Psychological round number and options strike concentration. Multiple models project the week ending near this zone.

• Stretch Target — $400+: Only achievable in the bull scenario. ChatGPT and Grok’s range highs contemplate this level.

Key Events

• Tuesday Feb 17 — Retail Sales: The first major macro data point after the long weekend. Strong data could push yields higher and pressure growth multiples.

• Wednesday Feb 18 — FOMC Minutes: The single most frequently cited risk event. While the minutes reflect pre-CPI sentiment, any hawkish surprise could trigger algorithmic selling.

• Thursday Feb 19 — Ex-Dividend ($0.46): A small mechanical price adjustment, but noteworthy in a volatile environment.

• Friday Feb 20 — Monthly Options Expiration: The structural event that all models identified as capable of amplifying whatever directional trend has established itself by week’s end.

Our Editorial Take

The exercise of comparing six AI chatbots on the same forecasting task yields insights that go beyond any single prediction. Several themes stand out.

Data quality is paramount. Copilot’s significantly lower opening price estimate demonstrates that even sophisticated models can produce materially different outputs when they anchor on stale data. The ability to incorporate real-time pre-market pricing was a clear differentiator among the models.

Analytical depth varies widely. ChatGPT’s 50+ citation, multi-factor framework and Gemini’s quantitative gamma exposure analysis contrast sharply with Copilot’s more concise approach. For readers seeking to understand the “why” behind a forecast, the depth of reasoning matters as much as the price target itself.

Contrarian signals have value. Claude’s uniquely cautious stance — explicitly citing AMAT’s -7.99% average post-earnings day move and the sell-the-news pattern — serves as an important counterweight to the bullish consensus. In markets, the most valuable analysis is often the one that challenges prevailing sentiment.

Consensus is not certainty. Even with all six models agreeing on the direction, the probability assessments averaged just 67%. The AI models themselves are telling us there is roughly a one-in-three chance the stock finishes the week lower. This is a healthy reminder that forecasting, even by advanced AI, remains fundamentally probabilistic.

Conclusion

The AI consensus for AMAT’s February 13–20 trading window is constructive: a predicted opening around $361–$369 (excluding the Copilot outlier), a closing target in the $373–$384 range, and a roughly two-thirds probability of finishing the week in positive territory. The fundamental catalyst — a transformative earnings report powered by AI-driven semiconductor demand — is strong, but the tactical environment (elevated VIX, dense macro calendar, OPEX mechanics) introduces meaningful two-way risk.

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